Tuesday, December 12, 2017

AT Kearney Weighs in on 2018

My friends at AT Kearney have called their VUCA world shots on 2018.

“In today’s increasingly volatile world, it is difficult to speculate about what might happen next week; predicting the course of events over the next year is even more challenging. Shifting attitudes and heightened tensions in society, rising populism and nationalism in politics, and rapid technological change are all contributing to significant uncertainty in the external environment. There are, therefore, some domains for which we cannot make predictions for the year ahead with a reasonable degree of certainty. Despite this mounting volatility and complexity, there is a compelling case for the ongoing need to scan for future developments. It is with this argument in mind that we issue this annual set of predictions, which we hope will contribute to active debate on the various forces of change at work and the consequences they imply.

“In that spirit, the Global Business Policy Council makes 10 specific predictions for 2018, all of which will have important implications for the global business environment."

1. Quantum supremacy will be achieved. (KR note: if you are any doubts about the supremacy of quantum computing, read the new novel by The Washington Post’s David Ignatius, The Quantum Spy).

2. Difficult negotiations will raise the risk of a hard Brexit in early 2019 (KR note: the binary choice of In/Out was one of the dumbest electoral decisions in history; to decide this the electorate should have been presented with a series of multiple choice questions).

3. Facial recognition technology will become omnipresent. (KR note: I rely on Head & Shoulders despite having a sparse cranium; how will it figure in the scanner?)

4. The threat from the Islamic State will metastasize in Southeast Asia, Africa, and beyond. (KR note: radical optimism is the only route).

5. Domestic politics in Germany and France will cut short the “Merkron” honeymoon phase. (KR note: despite France’s anxiety about its who/what/why, it did put on a gracious show for the funerals of cultural icons who died within a day of each other this week, author Jean d’Ormesson and Johnny Hallyday. Said the FT, “Johnny Hallyday’s death, a day after d’Ormesson’s, comes at a time when French society is a bit disorientated. France has a hard time projecting itself and is in search of meaning. Both men were cultural compasses. There’s a widespread feeling of loss.” As for Germany, get your s*** together. New Zealand formed a coalition in 19 days. Germany is heading into 100 days without resolution.

6. Catastrophic natural disasters will put even more pressure on global insurance markets. (Give to Puerto Rico).

7. New regulations will emerge as scrutiny of the US Internet giants’ power and autonomy reaches a fever pitch. (KR note: beware weapons of mass distraction).

8. Rapidly rising demand for electric vehicles will spark a spike in global sales. (KR note: Um, I have a Maserati, a Jaguar and a Land Rover in different garages in the world; driver’s cars).

9. Chinese foreign investment will accelerate but will face growing resistance. (KR note: I gave a speech in Shanghai in 1998 titled “Brand China;” worth a re-read).

10. Breakthroughs in cancer treatments will accelerate at an unprecedented rate.” (KR note: Too late for my first love Barbara. But not too late for others).